Check out the month Memphis has had so far. The Grizzlies have wins at the Sixers by 16, at the Heat by 12, at the Hawks by 18, and then most recently on a back to back, they beat the Bucks in Milwaukee by 13. Are you not entertained? What more does Memphis have to do to start getting some respect? The Grizzlies may not have a full lineup tonight, but 7.5 points is way too many for Ja Morant and the crew. Give me the dog in this spot.

Memphis already has ruled out double-double machine Jonas Valanciunas (concussion protocol) for this game and could also be sans Dillon Brooks (thigh), Brandon Clarke (hip), De'Anthony Melton (leg) and Justise Winslow (thigh). Thus, I think we are safe taking Denver this early even though the Nugs are of course without Jamal Murray (and Monte Morris) -- although, I also took the Nets at -200 on Sunday vs. the Heat and got scorched when Kevin Durant left in the first quarter with an injury and Brooklyn lost. Those are the risks we take.

My model says the Grizzlies cover in over 60 percent of the simulations, so you're getting strong value with them at this number. Memphis has won three of its last four contests, with the only loss being a one-point setback against Dallas on Wednesday. The Grizzlies have covered the spread in each of their last five games as underdogs. Take Memphis on Monday.