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Fri 04/09 | 1:00 AM UTC | Dallas
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Milwaukee Bucks 32-18, 21-28 ATS
MIL +2.5-110
MIL +125
Over 227.5-110
Dallas Mavericks 28-22, 25-25 ATS
DAL -2.5-110
DAL -145
Under 227.5-110

Expert Picks

Milwaukee 101 @ Dallas 116 | 04/14 | 12:18 PM UTC

Dallas -105

WIN

ANALYSIS: Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed as doubtful, and I was going to wait until the 5:30 p.m. NBA injury report update on him and whether the Mavs' Kristaps Porzingis is going to play the second of a back-to-back, but the Unicorn isn't on the first injury report so apparently he will play. Once the Freak is officially ruled out, the Mavs will become favorites (some offshores are moving the spread in that direction). We will assume he's not playing and take this now at better value. Disregard the Mavs' ugly loss in Houston on Wednesday -- I recommended the Rockets -- as it was a major trap game.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+1386 46-23 IN LAST 69 NBA PICKS
+300 3-0 IN LAST 3 DAL ML PICKS

Season Splits

32-18, 21-28 ATS
28-22, 25-25 ATS
All Games
ALL
All Games
42%
21-28-1
25-25
50%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
33%
8-16-1
9-13
40%
As Underdog or PK
STATUS
As Favorite
0%
0-3
14-15
48%
When Spread was +1 to +3.5
SPREAD
When Spread was -3.5 to -1
0%
0-3
6-5
54%
As Road Underdog
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Favorite
0%
0-2
5-10
33%
vs Teams That Win >55% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >55% of Games
43%
7-9
10-8
55%
vs Teams Allowing >102 PPG
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing >102 PPG
42%
20-27-1
25-23
52%
After a Day Off
REST
in 2nd Game of Back-to-Back
42%
18-24-1
3-6
33%
vs DAL
HEAD TO HEAD
vs MIL
0%
0-1
1-0
100%