The Rockets essentially tanked their last three games after learning of their playoff destiny. It's a dangerous risk to believe that an on-off switch can suddenly be flipped when the games matter again, especially with a coach who is defined by postseason failures. Both teams are dealing with injury issues as Russell Westbrook is out for Houston and lock-down defender Lu Dort, who has had success against James Harden, shelved for Oklahoma City. But the Thunder are still the more fundamentally solid team and that edge tends to pay off when the stakes are higher.

This should be an exciting series. Unfortunately for Houston, it will have to start it without Russell Westbrook (quadriceps), who will miss at least the opener. That leaves the Rockets in a hole against a Thunder team that went 3-0 ATS against them this season and was 28-11 ATS away from home. Look for Oklahoma City to capitalize on Westbrook’s absence and pull out the win in Game 1.