In the Hawks' last five games, they are 4-1 with some impressive wins. Meanwhile the Heat are 1-4 their last five road games. I’d say Hawks money line would be worth a play too, but I’m just so scared they fall apart late like earlier in the season when Trae Young told the crowd the game was over and the Hawks lost in OT. So just take the points.

Yes, the Heat are 3-0 ATS versus the Hawks this season. However, two of those games were played in Miami, which is important to note because the Heat have been one of the best home teams in the league. They defeated the Hawks by nine points when they played in Atlanta, but Trae Young was sidelined for that contest. The Hawks have been a more competitive team at home this season, posting a 15-10-1 mark ATS. Meanwhile, the Heat are 12-16-1 ATS on the road. I think the Heat win this game, but the Hawks can keep it close, so take the points.

My data projects the Heat and Hawks to score at least 240 points Thursday coming out of the All-Star break, enough to soar past this substantial posted total. I've got the Over hitting in nearly 70 percent of simulations. Atlanta has played 10-1 to the Over in its past 11 home games, while the Heat are 12-3 to the Over when facing opponents with losing records.