Simulation Picks
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Expert Picks
There seems to be a widespread perception that the Rockets are destined to get more calls in their favor because of the onslaught of attention they brought to perceived wrongs in Game 1. That could be the case, but doesn't necessarily mean they are destined to win. The Warriors took Game 1 despite subpar performances from gimpy stars Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. They can remove all doubt about officiating impacting the outcome by giving Houston a thumping Tuesday in Game 2.
I don't care which ref is working the game, nor do I care about the Rockets complaining about officiating in Game 1. I look at this matchup and I see a line that's moved 1.5 points in the wrong direction, providing plenty of value on the Warriors.
Houston looked like the better team in Game 1, but came up short by four points. the Rockets nearly won despite shooting 41.9 percent from the field, while the Warriors shot 50.7 percent with a 52-39 edge in rebounds. Houston's defense was No. 2 in the NBA post All-Star break and the Rockets should step up their intensity Tuesday in Game 2.
The Rockets have won three of the last five meetings with Golden State, covering four of them and keeping four of them Under the total. In Game 1 the Rockets forced 20 turnovers, but only shot 41 percent and didn't get a great shooting night from James Harden and still almost won. Houston has stayed Under in their last four games overall and has covered 10 of their last 13 overall. I'm on the Rockets with the points.
Houston losing Game 1 has put the pressure on the Rockets to showcase themselves in Game 2 on Tuesday. One would expect Kevin Durant to continue his stellar play and for Steph Curry and Klay Thompson to be sharper. Riding their home crowd, the Warriors are on track for another trip to the Western Conference Finals. But look for the Rockets to play with the proverbial chip on their shoulders and for Chris Paul to be the main catalyst.
If a few calls had gone the other way, the Rockets very well could have pulled off the win on the road in Game 1. They still covered and will have their sights set on winning Tuesday to even up the series as they head home. I believe they will win, so I’ll take the points.
Neither team was particularly on fire in Game 1 when 204 points were scored. On Tuesday, I think the postgame complaints about the officiating will free up 3-point shooters to rise and shoot without concern. My model predicts 225 points will be scored and that the Over hits 58 percent of the time. Take the Over.
The Rockets shot uncharacteristically poorly from 3-point land in Game 1--some of those misses coming on questionable no-calls--and still had a big shot to steal a win. With all of the talk about officiating after Sunday's game, I expect James Harden & Co. to get a fairly called game on Tuesday. The Rockets know that if they're going to win this series, they need to win a game in Oracle, and there aren't many chances after Tuesday. Houston covers.
The spread right now is the same as it was for Game 1, a four-point Warriors win and a Rockets cover. The non-call against Draymond Green on James Harden in the final seconds, and it could have been even closer if not an outright Houston win. I think the Warriors escaped, and the Rockets will keep it close with another chance to steal a road win. Take the points.