The Warriors should win this game on their home floor. However, the Cavs certainly win this game more than 27 percent of the time like the odds suggest. The Cavs might get blown out of the building, but I'm betting on the best player in the world at +270 every time in an elimination game. LeBron is averaging a triple double in the Finals and 34.5 PPG, 11.8 RPG and 7.3 APG in his last 11 elimination games. Look for a career night from LeBron, that's what it's going to take.

The Warriors are back home where they're not going to shoot 28 percent from beyond the arc. They're also going to challenge Cleveland defensively, which they did not do in Game 4. Lay the points.

Three of the first four games have gone Over, but in my view this total has gotten out of control. I'm projecting 220 points for Game 5, indicating a strong lean to the Under. The Under is cashing in a whopping 76 percent of my simulations.

I initially made two Game 5 plays on the Cavaliers in the NBA Finals, one on the point spread and the other on the money line. But when I thought about it again, I concluded I should be more invested in Cleveland winning outright. The Cavaliers either win Monday or they get blown out. I think their dominating performance in Game 4 with Tristan Thompson finally being active was huge. The Cavs are currently 11/1 to win it all, but getting nearly +300 to win one game after getting their mojo back is nice. I'm on the Cavs to win.