Past Picks
I am so thankful I found and became fluent in ChatGPT at least when it comes to player availability in soccer. I do go back and double-check everything to make sure so in reality it's taking me twice as long to make plays, but I want to be right. The Fire have a ton of guys out either for injury or international duty reasons -- there are a lot of guys league-wide out for that latter reason tonight. The big one missing for the Fire is Robert Lewandowski as Poland recalled him for national duty. He's third on the team with six goals despite only 11 games played. Charlotte isn't full strength, either, but doesn't appear nearly in as bad of shape.
San Diego's players could be low on confidence after they lost 5-0 at home to Philadelphia Union last weekend. Their now ninth in the Western Conference, and their away record is poor - six defeats from 11 games on the road. Inter Miami beat Cruz Azul 2-0 in the Campeones Cup final on Wednesday, and the Herons are on a five-game unbeaten streak. Lionel Messi is still in fine form, so they should have too much firepower for San Diego to handle.
Nashville's home record is superb this season. They Boys and Gold have picked up 11 wins and a draw from 12 games at Geodis Park, which is why they're so far ahead of their rivals in the race for the Supporters' Shield. Chicago Fire's away record is also solid, but they're currently on a six-game winless streak, and they're also coming off a 2-1 defeat to New England.
The teams are adjacent in the Western Conference standings, but the injury report favors L.A. as the Sounders have a handful of guys out or iffy led by Jesús Ferreira and Kalani Kossa-Rienzi. One of the notable MLS results of the season was May 16 when L.A. won 2-0 in Seattle to snap the Sounders' 22-match home unbeaten streak. It was the Galaxy's first win up there since July 2016. Player news is pretty much all good for Los Angeles led by the return from injury of Designated Player forward João Klauss. He's tied for the team lead with five goals despite not having played since April. Seems a really fair DNB number at least in regard to MLS prices often being kinda wonky.
It's not often you get Inter Miami at home with plus-money odds. Sure, Nashville SC sits atop the league right now, but they're coming off a 2-1 defeat at Toronto and will now face an Inter Miami side desperate to close the gap in the Eastern Conference standings. Lionel Messi and Co. have scored nine goals in their past two games at home, and I expect Messi to lead his side to victory in this one.
I looked at DNB for Houston yesterday and couldn't justify it priced around -250. But now this ... and love it so much I'm going fairly big because I believe the home side draws at worst. The Dynamo are eight spots higher and 11 points better in the West, so feel free to take the -110 ML but I like insurance. RSL has some major player availability concerns (led by Morgan Guilavogu) with a single road win. Houston has just two losses in 11 at home and has kept 11 clean sheets overall. This smells fishy, but I don't pretend to be a Wile E. Coyote MLS super-genius -- highly recommend the Coyote vs. Acme movie if you grew up watching as I did.
Tonight marks the ninth straight non-true home game in all competitions for FC Dallas. That has to be draining, and it seemed to show last time out in a 5-0 loss in Vancouver. St. Louis City FC, meanwhile, is beaten in 12 straight in all competitions (club record) and has set an MLS record with an 11-match unbeaten regular-season run. The sides drew 1-1 in April. City SC is unbeaten in four (two draws) at home in all competitions vs. Dallas. And it's Harry Potter Night at Energizer Park! I really can't segue to that cleverly having never seen or read a second of HP.
Today years old when I found out this is called the Rocky Mountain Clash. Sounds like monster trucks and mud to me but whatever. So how I bet soccer isn't rocket science. I skim all the leagues to see a decent home DNB price first and then go investigate. Certainly don't always play them, and some prices I think are just wrong. Which brings me here in MLS. Some of our books have this DNB in the -250 range, so that piqued my interest getting this "value" number even if high. The visitors have quite the laundry list of guys either out or questionable, although I won't say any of them are stars. The Rapids are 10-2-0 at home with seven clean sheets.
Nashville SC has the best record in Major League Soccer this season. The Boys in Gold are 10 points clear of their closest rivals, Inter Miami, at the top of the Eastern Conference table. They’ve won all three games since MLS resumed in mid-August, beating Inter Miami 4-1, New York Red Bulls 1-0, and Columbus Crew 3-2. FC Cincinnati are also on an impressive unbeaten streak, but they still trail Nashville by 18 points in the Eastern Conference. This game will take place in Nashville, and home advantage could swing things in their favor. They have 10 wins and one draw from 11 home games, whereas Cincinatti has only won once in 10 games on the road.
Faded New York FC on Wednesday because the side was ravaged by injury, and it lost 2-1 in Cincinnati -- a fourth straight defeat in all competitions. All those guys are out again led by Hannes Wolf and Maxi Moralez. The Revs have one of the best home records in the league at 8-2-1 and have scored 21 of their 32 total goals in Foxborough. Jack Harrison was recently acquired from Leeds United and has four assists in three games.
Nashville SC has the best home record in Major League Soccer this season: nine wins, one draw, and zero defeats from 10 games. The Boys in Gold have scored 29 goals and conceded just 10 times at Geodis Park. They should be full of confidence after thumping Inter Miami 4-1 last weekend, before securing a midweek away win against New York Red Bulls. Columbus Crew have only won once in 10 away games this season, which doesn’t bode well for their chances of getting a result against Nashville.
Played FC Cincinnati in its last game because it was home and healthy, while the visitors had a ton of guys listed out. That worked out well Wednesday with the Fighting Skyline Chilis beating NYFC, 2-1, to improve to 11-3-1 at home in all competitions and on a four-game winning streak there. Same situation here really. Seattle, near the bottom of the Western Conference, has a laundry list of guys ruled out and has lost eight straight in MLS action. It's the first time the Sounders have left the West Coast in weeks.
Teams are separated by a point in the Eastern Conference table but while FC Cincinnati isn't listing a single player on the availability report tonight, New York FC has eight guys out led by second-leading goalscorer Hannes "Teen" Wolf (5G, 2A), leading assister Maxi Moralez (6A, 1G) and top defender Thiago Martins. At least that's what ChatGPT told me; obviously I went and double-checked when it mentioned Pele, so it actually took more time. FC Cincinnati is 10-3-1 at home in all competitions this season and won the past three there in MLS action. These teams drew 4-4 in late April. Those three NY guys I mentioned all played.
Chicago is fourth in the East with 29 points and has a plus-9 goal differential while Portland is 10th in the West with 24 points and is even on differential. It's Portland's first visit to the Windy City in eight years and marks the MLS debut of new Portland head coach Martí Cifuentes. Second-leading scorer and top assister Kristoffer Velde (4G, 6A) is in doubt after leaving a Leagues Cup this week injured. The Timbers are 2-6-1 in road games. Led by new addition and European superstar Robert Lewandowski (2G in three games), Chicago is on a four-game winning streak in all competitions.
Real Salt Lake have been superb at home this season. They've won seven of their eight MLS games at America First Field, and they beat Juarez 3-0 at home in the Leagues Cup in midweek. Minnesota United are a strong team, but they've struggled on the road this season. They've lost four of their nine away MLS games, and they haven't won on the road since early May.