Marlins vs. Red Sox Tuesday MLB odds, props: Jazz Chisholm activated for Miami, struggling Sandy Alcantara set at 2.5 earned runs allowed

The Miami Marlins have been one of MLB's big surprises this season at 45-34, good for the third-best record in the National League, despite the struggles of 2022 Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara and the team's most dynamic position player, Jazz Chisholm, being limited to 39 games due to injury. Chisholm has been activated off the IL and will be in the lineup Tuesday for a series opener in Boston with Alcantara on the mound. Alcantara is set at over/under 2.5 earned runs allowed at Caesars Sportsbook.

Last year, Alcantara became the first Marlins pitcher to ever win the Cy Young Award. He got all 30 first-place votes, becoming just the 10th unanimous winner in either league since 2000. In 32 starts, Alcantara posted the second-lowest ERA in the NL (2.28) with MLB highs for innings (228 2/3) and complete games (six) -- both marks the best in the majors in six years.

This year, he's 2-6 with a 5.08 ERA in 15 starts with his changeup being hit particularly hard. That pitch registered an MLB-best -25 run value in 2022. Alcantara has allowed at least five runs in three of his past four outings and five times overall this season (33% of his starts) after allowing five earned runs in only three games all of last year (9% of his starts). During his Cy Young campaign, batters hit .233 against Alcantara with a runner in scoring position. That number is .403 this year, so there has been some bad luck.

The 27-year-old's lone start against Boston came in 2020 when he allowed a run over six innings in a loss. Over 2.5 earned runs allowed tonight is the -165 favorite. Alcantara is +155 to record a win.

Even with Luis Arraez threatening to hit .400 this season --  he's at .399 and is batting .541 over a nine-game hitting streak -- the Miami offense leaves much to be desired, so Chisholm's return can only help matters. The 2022 All-Star was batting .229 with seven homers, 16 RBI, 14 steals and 16 runs scored in 39 games before going down with turf toe. Chisholm is +425 to go yard tonight, -240 to record a hit and +245 to steal a base. It's not clear where he may slot in the lineup. He had been leading off, but how can you take the red-hot Arraez out of that spot?

The Marlins are five games better than the Red Sox this season but have a run differential that is 36 runs worse (+21 vs. -15). The Red Sox have the worst positive run differential among teams with a .500 record or better.

Boston has followed a six-game winning streak by losing four of five. The Sox will send Garrett Whitlock (4-2, 4.50 ERA) to the mound. Whitlock has been more much effective at Fenway Park this season (3.38 ERA) than he has been on the road (5.27). Whitlock made his lone appearance vs. the Marlins on June 7, 2021, in Boston when he retired the only batter he faced. 

Get more out of your SportsLine subscription! 

• Picks: NFL | NBA | CFB | CBB
• DFS: Lineup Optimizer | Picks
• Early Edge: YouTube | Apple Podcasts
• Newsletters: SportsLine Daily | Fantasy

Qualifying SportsLine members receive a 30-day free trial of Paramount+ premium. Sync your account right here.