Astros vs. Rangers Thursday ALCS Game 4 odds, trends, props: Heavy action on Houston to tie series, Texas star Corey Seager
Houston looks to tie the ALCS at 2-2 tonight at Texas.
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The 2023 MLB postseason has been filled with sweeps, but thanks to the Houston Astros we are guaranteed not to have one in the ALCS. They won at Texas in Game 3 on Wednesday night to cut the Rangers' series lead to 2-1, and bettors are all over the Astros again Thursday in Arlington for Game 4 as short underdogs. They're also high on Texas All-Star shortstop Corey Seager at the plate. Click here for model picks.
At BetMGM, Houston opened at +100 for Game 4 and is now -105 while taking 84% of the handle and 69% of the tickets. On the total of 9.5, 64% of the handle and 53% of the bets are on the Over. The run line has actuall flipped at that book to Houston at -1.5, even though it's still a money line dog.
Both Jose Altuve or Kyle Tucker were quiet in the first two games for the Astros, but both were big in Wednesday's 8-5 win – the first loss (and only second home game) of this postseason for Texas. Altuve was 2-for-5 with a solo homer and two runs scored, while Tucker was dropped to a season-low sixth in the lineup and was 1-for-2 with three walks and two runs scored.
Incidentally, that was the future Hall of Famer Altuve's 25th career playoff homer, and he's now four behind the all-time mark of 29 set by Manny Ramirez. It was also Altuve's 33rd career postseason multi-hit game, which rank third-most all-time behind former Yankees greats Derek Jeter (58) and Bernie Williams (36).
Houston was below .500 at home this season but is now 54-30 on the road, including the playoffs. It has won 17 of its past 20 away overall and is 8-1 on the road in the playoffs since 2022, outscoring opponents 40-22. Houston also has won six straight at Globe Life Field and seven of eight in 2023, including Game 3.
Teams that have won Game 3 of a best-of-7 series after trailing 2-0 have come back to take the series 13 of 50 times (26%). The Astros are +188 on the updated series line and turn to Jose Urquidy tonight.
The right-hander won at Minnesota in the clinching ALDS Game 4 and is now 4-2 with a 3.64 ERA in 42 career playoff innings. Urquidy loves facing Texas, as he is 5-0 with a 2.82 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Rangers. He's set at over/under 2.5 earned runs and 11.5 outs recorded and is +400 for a win.
The most-wagered MLB player prop among both LCS games tonight is (somewhat surprisingly) Seager Over 1.5 total bases (-130). I say surprising because the other four top wagers are all on the earlier Phillies-Diamondbacks game (for obvious reasons, earlier starts get more early action). And it's not like Seager is rolling right now, as he's 2-for-13 in the series with no extra-base hits and four strikeouts. However, he is 3-for-9 off Urquidy with a double and homer.
Lefty Andrew Heaney starts for Texas but likely will serve as a glorified opener. He'll go at least once through the lineup unless he's throwing well. Heaney was 1-0 with a 2.75 ERA in four starts vs. Houston this year.
He last pitched in Game 1 of the ALDS in Baltimore and allowed one run in 3.2 innings before being relieved by usual starter Dane Dunning, and that's the plan Thursday unless Heaney is dealing. Heaney is set at O/U 1.5 earned runs, 10.5 strikeouts and a whopping +1000 to get the win even though his team is favored. That's the books telling you he isn't going five innings. Altuve hammers Heaney at 12-for-37 with three doubles and two homers. Tucker is 1-for-10 (solo HR) in 10 at-bats off him.
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