Over the last thirty days the Pittsburgh Pirates have had the second most home runs in MLB. Joey Castillo has kept his home runs allowed down, with just one allowed over his last six starts. Yet, he did get out of a couple jams last Sunday against the Marlins, and has had a few stretches this year of being home run prone. Value play on Jared Triolo hitting his second home of the season.

Paul Skenes against a Guardians offense that’s 29th in scoring, 28th in average and 27th in home runs? I know Skenes isn’t his usual dominant self, and he’s really had issues in day games. But the Pirates are the No. 1-hitting offense on Sundays all season and in July has a .906 OPS vs. left-handers. Guardians LHP Joey Cantillo is on a hot streak, but a top-tier offense with Skenes at plus money is worth a gamble.