Cristopher Sanchez against Walker Buehler presents a large mismatch in the F5 market here. Sanchez has yet to allow a run in four May starts, looking dominant and leading the Cy Young race, while Buehler has been eaten up by left handed batters to the tune of a .313 average, allowing 2+ runs in seven straight starts. Buehler has been better at home but it's also a positive ballpark change for Sanchez, and if the Phillies can push a run or two across on Buehler, that could be enough.

The +110 for a 7th strikeout has some value here, as Cristopher Sanchez has consistently hit 6+ strikeouts and is running a career best 15% swinging strike rate. His changeup has a stellar 49% whiff rate and 46 Ks vs. righties through 11 starts. He's bumped up the slider usage as well, but the changeup will be the key as always, especially with the Padres lineup struggling to a MLB worst 30% strikeout rate on that pitch. We may see positive regression for San Diego's strikeouts vs. lefties at some point, as they've been far worse than last year, but the struggles with the changeup plus Sanchez routinely pitching deep in the game for extra opportunities has be diving in.

The Padres own an MLB-worst .218 batting average and now have to face Phillies ace Cristopher Sanchez, who has not allowed a run in his last four starts (32 innings). The Phils should have success against Walker Buehler, who at 31 has been mediocre this season. Look for Philadelphia, which is 19-8 under Don Mattingly, to lead after five.