Jesus Luzardo's strikeouts have been down of late, missing this line in three straight starts, but the underlying numbers haven't moved significantly from when he was over this line in 5/7 starts to begin the year. Luzardo is facing a lineup that was stingy for strikeouts last year but they've been worse to begin the year, especially against southpaws that can throw breaking pitches. Kyle Harrison used his slurve and fastball combo to strike out seven Friars recently, and this is a lineup with a near 40% K rate vs lefty slider/sweepers. Luzardo uses a 45%+ whiff rate sweeper heavily, and imo we have upside potential for a ladder here. 7,8,9,10 Ks, I'm taking a shot for 1.1u total.

Pretty fair +1.5 price considering the Padres have a much better record and didn't travel Sunday, while the Phillies flew across country. They have lost four of five. Philadelphia lefty Jesus Luzardo (3-4, 4.85 ERA) has been quite inconsistent. The Padres are 8-5 vs. southpaws. Mason Miller wasn't used Sunday, so if San Diego is up by a run in the ninth, we should be set. Starter Randy Vasquez (5-2, 2.96 ERA) has been solid enough.

Jesus Luzardo of the Phillies and Randy Vasquez of the Padres are in good spots here. After a tough start to 2026, Luzardo has given up over two runs just once in his last six starts. Vasquez is 5-2 with a 2.96 ERA. They each face lineups with OPS numbers in the mid-.500’s the last two weeks vs. the handedness of these hurlers. Philly has managed more than one run just once in the last four games, San Diego over two runs just once in four. We’ll play both starters.