The Marlins come in hot while the Blue Jays saw their win streak snapped Sunday in a 4-1 loss. This is a nice bounceback spot, however, behind Trey Yesavage (2-1, 1.07 ERA). The Marlins have never seen him. Look for Toronto to jump on Jansen Junk early and lead after five innings.

This one’s about the pitching. Trey Yesavage has a 1.05 ERA in five starts. Janson Junk is at 5.07 through 10 and it’s worse on the road. Toronto’s bullpen is also better. Miami just swept the Mets but because New York couldn’t hit. The Blue Jays can hit, especially at home.

The splitter was a huge weapon for Trey Yesavage last year against lefties but some metrics have tailed off so far in that matchup. Still, Yesavage has six or more strikeouts in each start since receiving a full workload, and faces a Marlins team that travels to Toronto without a day off. This Miami lineup has never seen Yesavage and features six lefties, albeit 3/6 are not great strikeout targets, but this doesn't make for an easy matchup seeing Yesavage's filthy stuff for the first time. He's still running some impressive underlying numbers too; 47% whiff on the splitter vs lefties and 40% whiff on the slider vs righties, giving us about 15 cents or more of value on the 6th strikeout.

The Marlins just finished a sweep of the Mets in Miami yesterday, and they now have to travel up to Toronto without a day off. The offense remained dormant for Miami in that win yesterday until the 9th inning grand slam to walk it off, and this will be their first time seeing Trey Yesavage. Having exceeded this line in 3/5 starts with back to back quality starts now, I think this line on Yesavage should be set at 16.5 at worst, so I have value on the over 15.5 outs. Miami is also seeing one of the lowest total pitches per plate appearance and while Yesavage has had some issues with walking righties, he should only see two righties with walks rates above 8%.