Chicago's offense was dormant for much of last night's game, but Aaron Nola has had issues with home runs allowed in Philly, both last year and so far in 2026. 11 of his 18 homers allowed in 2025 came at home, and this year his two homers allowed were in his only start in Citizens Bank Park. That was without tonight's 80 degree weather and humidity bump too. Nola needs to keep the ball on the ground to have a chance of beating us, otherwise I think those top-15 HR/FB and HR/9 rates from last year resurface to bite him at some point. The Cubs also walk rate is better than 11% vs righties thus far, and they see an above average number of pitches.

As you may be aware, we don't have Yes or No First Run Inning prop on-site capability yet (can post in Discord), but hopefully soon. So I'm going to take this on Cubs opener Riley Martin because essentially it is NRFI, but just on the Phillies. The 28-year-old rookie is a lefty so it makes sense to open him against Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. And in three "opens" this year, Martin hasn't allowed a run yet. I just don't want him to go more than an inning is all. Winds are blowing out so that's not ideal but still have to try it.