The Phillies have won their last seven games against the Rockies, and they're at Coors Field today for the Rockies home opener. The Rockies got swept at Miami but won two out of three at Toronto in the last series. The Phillies are 3-3 after winning the last two against the Nationals. The key to this bet for me is Aaron Nola pitching in thin air in April and giving up one of those monster innings. He gave up three runs in five innings in his first start against the Rangers, which included giving up two home runs. Michael Lorenzen gave up three runs in 4.1 innings in a loss to the Marlins. The Phillies are 4-1 to the Over. Over the play.

FanDuel. After an uninspiring first outing against the Marlins in Miami, Michael Lorenzen makes his Coors Field debut as a Rockie today. As a starter, the veteran righty has spent the majority of his starting pitching tenure towards the bottom of the strikeout percentage leaderboard, pitching to contact rather than missing bats. The Phillies profile once again as a strikeout averse lineup, after finishing with the sixth lowest strikeout rate against righties last season. And pitching today in the ballpark that suppresses strikeouts at the highest rate, I’m comfortable laying a little juice on this line.