The Blue Jays are going to have to scramble in Seattle to get this series back to Rogers Centre. Toronto's bold move to trust rookie Trey Yesevage on the mound would backfire in Game 2, but vet Shane Bieber should prove a better option tonight. Though Bieber wasn't effective in the ALDS vs. the Yankees, he looks the Jays' best chance on the mound, as across his last three September starts, Bieber found a rhythm with a 2.60 ERA. Seattle has been getting good pitching in the playoffs, though Game 3 starter George Kirby probably limited to five innings. Note the offense has been held to three or fewer runs in five of seven playoff games. Play Blue Jays on the Money Line.

The Mariners offense is rolling right now and Shane Bieber looked very gettable last time against the Yankees but also based on some of the underlying metrics. A 4.57 xERA with an average exit velocity of nearly 95 mph on his fastball, I don’t trust he keeps this lineup at bay for more than a couple innings. Runs will likely be at a premium in T-Mobile Park once again, and with how dominant the M's bullpen has been, I think the lower total plays into their hand. The bullpen has accounted for nine innings of shutout ball, with just one hit allowed in that time. Toronto has been absolutely crushed by Seattle's bevy of high caliber relievers, and I don't think it gets much easier.

When road teams win in the MLB playoffs, I usually don't win $$$. So this LCS round has not been great. And I personally hope the Jays win tonight to give us a series, and if +1.5 was decently priced would take it (alas, it's not). But I can't fade George Kirby and Seattle's far superior bullpen at home -- since the trade deadline and including the playoffs, the M's have the best home mark in the majors. Toronto is just not hitting thus far with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at 0-for-7. Shut him down, you usually shut down Toronto. The Jays were 40-41 away during the regular season (did sweep three in Seattle) and 1-1 in the ALDS.