I need to go down swinging with my Cubbies. Don't really expect them to beat Freddy Peralta, but Matt Boyd has been much, much better at home this year, while Peralta's road ERA is two runs higher than at home. The Cubs’ bullpen is in great shape thanks to the off-day Tuesday and no one throwing more than 19 pitches in Game 3. Either way, feels like a low-scoring one-run game -- hopefully forcing a Game 5.

Unlike Dodgers-Phillies, home field edge has meant something in this matchup as the Cubs have stayed alive to force Game Four. Wrigley Field has also been really good for Cubs starter Matthew Boyd, who has a 12-1 record and 2.51 ERA at home this season. Though Craig Counsell likely has him on a short leash after a rough outing (to put it mildly) at Milwaukee in Game One. Meanwhile, Freddy Peralta hasn't been overwhelming on the mound for the Brewers since his 29-inning scoreless streak. Even during that hot run, Peralta's pitch counts were abnormally high, and he's mostly been at a five-inning max since the end of August. Play Cubs on the Money Line.

I want to take the Cubs in this critical Game 4, but I can't trust Matthew Boyd at this juncture of the season. June, yes; October, no. However, what I do like is the over in the game, with temperatures at 58° and the wind blowing in towards third base at 8 mph at game time. However, by the 5th or 6th inning, it's going to be blowing out to left field at 10 mph. I would take the first five innings under while taking the game over. That's the plan, just the over.

This is another longshot play, but this is the best HR value in CHC-MIL tonight. The weather is going to be pitcher friendly like it was yesterday, but there were still several HRs hit in yesterday's game. Contreras is 5-10 with a HR and 0 Ks in his career against Matthew Boyd. When factoring in the weather, we set Contreras' line at +540 to hit a homer today.