The Cubs are 12-3 when Matt Boyd starts at home compared to just 4-12 when he starts on the road. Nick Pivetta has a 3.55 ERA on the road and a 5-4 record compared to an 8-1 record and a 2.36 home ERA. The biggest reason we like the Cubs is their 50-31 home record this season and the Padres' 38-43 road record. Wrigley will be pumping today, and the Cubs have a huge home field advantage with a pitcher that thrives at home on the mound.

Nick Pivetta is 25-6 on the over this season and 9-1 in his last 10 games. Pivetta is 12-2 on the over in 14 road starts this season, and we have him with 6.2 strikeouts in the Inside the Lines Model.

Manny Machado is a solid 5-13 in his career against Matt Boyd, and while he doesn't have a home run against Boyd, Machado does have two doubles against him. Boyd has allowed 19 Home Runs this season, and 17 of those were hit by right-handed hitters. Despite having a 2.51 home ERA compared to a 3.90 road ERA, Boyd actually has a higher HR/9 allowed at home this season than on the road. Machado has 13 HRs in 47 games this season when the opposing starter is left-handed compared to 14 HRs in 112 starts when the opposing starter is a righty. We set Machado's line at +345 to homer today.

It's going to be 70° with winds blowing in from left field at 10 mph for Game 1 at Wrigley Field between the Padres and Cubs. This will be the third series between these two clubs, with the first two being split three games apiece, with each home team holding serve. It’ll also be the third meeting between starting pitchers Nick Pivetta and Matthew Boyd, who split each matchup. Both those pitching matchups were in April. The Cubs come off a sweep of the Cardinals, but they were struggling before, while the Padres have won seven of their last eight, including a sweep over the last weekend against Arizona. I've got the Cubs holding serving game one behind Matthew Boyd.