The New York Mets are coming off another loss yesterday to the Philadelphia Phillies. Now they will have to face a Texas Rangers team that has had an off day, and is one of the hottest teams in baseball 14-4 over their last 18 games. The market has over reacted in my opinion with the Rangers coming off a sweep over the best team in baseball in Milwaukee. Take the Mets who even amidst their struggles have remained consistent at home where they are 45-27 on the season.

This would actually be one where I'd play +1 because I have a sneaky suspicion the Mets win because they almost have to: Six-game skid and about to lose last NL WC spot. I bet home teams for just this reason as all those losses were away, while New York is a dominant 45-27 at Citi Field. Texas is playing really well but mostly at home; it is 12 games under .500 away, and I think doing this with mirrors. It's a Jacob deGrom homecoming game, but he's basically a five-inning pitcher now and his road ERA is about a run worse. We don't even need a win, even if I think a good chance we get one. I'll always pony up for insurance.