I can't say I love this, only like it and the sole reason I will play is because I'm being offered -1. My inclination is this pushes but Gavin Williams (10-3, 3.17 ERA) has been largely great on the mound for Cleveland, holds opponents to a .210 average at home and has a 3.27 ERA in two starts vs. the Royals in 2025. Lefties are hitting only .147 off him this year and he's right-handed. That's a bit unusual. Both teams used the bullpen plenty Wednesday so I trust Williams more than Royals rookie Stephen Kolek to deep -- although Kolek has been good of late too. That's why I lean a low-scoring push but maybe we get lucky.

Both pitchers come into this game is good form. Since being acquired by the Royals, Stephen Kolek has only allowed three runs in 13 innings while Gavin Williams has allowed three runs, or less, in three of his last four starts. Kansas City’s offense has struggled in September, hitting .202, while the Guardians have been hitting .218 against righties at home over the last two months. The under is also 3-1 in the last four meetings.

I've got a bit of a gut feeling here on the road 'dogs. I like Stephen Kolek and what he's done since getting to Kansas City and working with pitching guru Brian Sweeney while the Royals have seen Gavin Williams twice already while he can get himself in trouble with walks and home runs.