Neither starter has been pitching well post All-Star break. Chris Paddack owns a 5.06 ERA, but Seth Lugo owns a 7.24 ERA. Kansas City has been outperforming the Tigers offensively during that same span as well. But this is a fishy line considering the Tigers are on a four-game losing streak, got swept by the A’s with one loss to Kansas City. The Tigers are also 7-3 SU against Kansas City in their last 10 meetings as well.

The Kansas City Royals have little room for error if they want to continue to keep in the AL Wild Card race. Today, they need Seth Lugo to respond as he has had disastrous outings in three out of his last four starts. This includes his last time out against the Detroit Tigers in which he surrendered six runs. Even with his struggles that outing, the Royals bats picked him up as the Royals won 10 to 8. Tail Kansas City as they get their 70th win on the season.

Vinnie Pasquantino has 24 RBI in 34 career games against Detroit, his most against any opponent, including a strong recent performance with a .333 average, two home runs, and 7 RBI in his last seven games vs Detroit. He saw Chris Paddack six days ago and collected a double in four at-bats. Vinnie gets back on track tonight after three straight games without an extra-base hit.

Riley Greene is just 2-13 in his career against Seth Lugo, but both of those hits were home runs. He's hit 29 of his 32 HRs this season against right-handed pitchers. Lugo has allowed 27 HRs this season, with 21 of them coming against right-handed hitters. We set Greene's line at +340 to homer.