Dylan Cease was brutal last time out but he's been better at home with a 3.61 ERA as opposed to an ERA nearing six on the road. The lineup isn't confirmed yet for the Giants so we could still see some movement on this 7th strikeout after that happens but at this price I'm playing it. Cease still has some impressive underlying strikeout numbers, with a swinging strike rate above 14% to each side of the plate and a 42%+ whiff rate on his most used pitch, the slider. Over the last two seasons, today's projected Giants lineup has struggled to avoid strikeouts on the slider and Cease has racked up 100+ K's on that pitch so far.

Dylan Cease could not overcome a few early walks in his last start and was pulled before covering four innings. Back at home now where he's been far better, I'm backing Cease and the Padres offense here in San Diego. Justin Verlander has been up and down this year but the Giants lineup has struggled of late, scoring two or fewer runs in eight of their last 11. They've lacked some thump since Matt Chapman hit the IL and with just four hits and one run last night, I don't trust them to get hot against Cease at home (3.61 home ERA, 5.65 road ERA). The Padres need this win badly before facing the Dodgers this weekend and the bullpen should be fully available.

Loving the -1 option even if we push. The Padres are routing the Giants a second straight game as I write this, so the bullpen should be set up nicely Thursday behind Dylan Cease. He's Mr. Inconsistent but usually better at Petco (3.61 ERA) and during the day (2.77 ERA). The Giants' Justin Verlander (1-9, 4.23 ERA) has seen much better days. SF only got 2.1 IP out of its starting pitcher on Wednesday due to injury, so there surely will be some bullpen carryover.