The Mariners have won seven straight games, and they're only one game out of first place in the AL West behind the Astros. The key edge for them tonight is George Kirby, who has won six of his last seven games, with his only loss coming against Milwaukee, which has the best record in baseball. That's 6-1 in his last seven games, and they're playing their best ball of the season right now, batting .296 over the last 30 days, second only to Toronto. In his last three starts, he's only allowed four earned runs total. Seattle owes Baltimore after getting swept in June. Mariners to win.

Eugenio Suárez has struggled since being traded to Seattle, but this matchup in Baltimore presents a good opportunity. He's crushed right-handed pitching this season with a .880 OPS and 26 home runs, compared to a .772 OPS against lefties. While he's just 2-for-11 in his career against Dean Kremer, Kremer has been struggling in recent starts and we think Suarez is due to barrel him up. We set Suárez's line at +315 to homer.

Seattle's George Kirby has topped 18 outs just twice all season and not since July 6. His road splits are significantly worse and he's pitching in a hitter-friendly park in the middle of summer. The Mariners were off on Monday so they have a full bullpen. I just don't see the point of letting Kirby, who started the year on the injured list, go more than six unless he's throwing a no-hitter or his pitch count is super-low.