The Brewers are an auto-tail at this point, having won nine in a row. They've gone 24-4 in the last month. The Pirates are a bad team and Paul Skenes isn't pitching. This won't be close and we get plus money.

Caesar’s. This is an interesting matchup. Jose Quintana has been solid this season, pitching to a 3.57 ERA - however his 4.79. ERA indicates he’s due for regression. The left-hander is under this line in 11/17 starts, and isn’t particularly efficient, ranking in the 28th percentile amongst qualified starters with 3.93 pitches per plate appearance. His zone rate of 48.2% is 15th lowest amongst 222 pitchers with at least 50 innings this season. And that’s where the Pirates can drive up his pitch count - the Buccos have the fourth lowest chase rate this season.

Jose Quintana is having an excellent season for the 1st place Milwaukee Brewers. While Quintana has pitched well, he hasn’t been pitching deep and has been held under this line in 12/17 starts this season. While I would never suggest Pittsburgh is a tough matchup, they have been hitting better over the last two weeks ranking 15th in wOBA.

We can't help but look at the Brewers with a short price like tonight, even if it means laying an extra run. After sweeping the Mets, Milwaukee's latest win streak is nine amid a breathtaking 48-16 extended run (.750!). Onetime Buc Jose Quintana continues to hold up his bargain at the back end of the Milwaukee rotation all season, with the Brew Crew winning in 12 of his 17 starts, including both thus far in August. Milwaukee is also the last team Pittsburgh needs to see after the bullpen collapsed in Sunday's 14-8 loss to the Reds, especially as Andrew Heaney's efforts as part of the rotation have tailed off significantly (7.36 ERA since the start of July). Play Brewers on Run Line