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Understanding Public and Money
Expert Picks

A team that is desperate to end a losing streak is the San Francisco Giants. They have lost six games in a row, and a bat that has struggled at home has been Rafael Devers. Look for the road element against the Mets to be beneficial for Devers, seeing a Mets team they just faced in last weekend’s series. With his hitting and total bases high juiced, we will shift to a plus payout on an RBI for Devers.

DraftKings / Caesar’s. Robbie Ray’s strikeout metrics have fallen off as the season has progressed. Over his last nine starts, he’s under this line seven times, with a called plus swinging strike rate of 25.2% (62nd of 76 qualifiers). This includes a 23.5% CSW% against the Mets just last week. The Mets as a team have the eleventh lowest CSW%, and the eighth lowest strikeout rate against lefties (21.6%). It’s an expensive price, but I’d confidently bet this down to under 5.5 strikeouts at plus odds (to win one betting unit).
Maybe the skidding Giants just need to get as far away from home as possible after getting swept all six in their just-completed Oracle Park homestand, which included the Mets winning all three last weekend. New York would subsequently lose three straight in San Diego, but the Mets had brought a seven-game win streak into Petco, one of those a 2-1 win over the Giants behind lefty David Peterson (who goes tonight) last Saturday. SF, bottom of MLB against southpaws (batting only .215) saw its offense further crater in the Pirates series, putting loads of pressure on tonight's starter Robbie Ray to keep the Mets off the scoreboard. Play Mets on the Money Line.
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