Have to say, the past three days and nights without sweating baseball has been lovely. Stomach pains subsided, I've lost 16 pounds, slept better, used some of my free time to help at a soup kitchen and invented an app that invents apps. OK, none of that happened except the ulcer part and I did have some soup personally. Been a little bored -- caught up on some shows; Black Doves was quite good -- so will put a toe back in and see if the July demon has been exorcised. No Lourdes Gurriel or Eugenio Suarez for the Snakes vs. Casey Mize. He has been great for the most part yet shelled in the past two ... but on extra rest.

Detroit appears to have shaken off the funk that caused them to lose 11 of 12 games, and they have won their last two games, ready to make their playoff push. Meanwhile, Arizona is a Dead Man walking. They've gone 1-6 in their last seven games after being .500 for the year, and it's not just that they're losing, it's how they're losing. They scored seven runs in a sweep by Houston, then scored one run in three games at Pittsburgh, and lost 5-1 yesterday to the Tigers. That's only two runs scored in their last four games. As they became sellers instead of buyers, the mood of the players changed. They look like they're ready for vacation. Detroit wins.

We're going back to Ketel Marte, who's been a reliable play this season. He owns a 1.021 OPS and has hit 15 of his 20 home runs against right-handed pitchers. He's also been raking on the road, with 11 HRs in just 39 games. Casey Mize is coming off two rough starts, allowing 10 earned runs over 7 innings. While Mize was an All-Star this year, the model sees a strong matchup for Marte. We set his line at +310 to homer.