Oneil Cruz put on a show in the HR Derby—leading the field in exit velocity and launching the furthest home run at 513 feet. He's hit 15 of his 16 home runs this season against right-handed pitchers, and he's facing one in Jonathan Cannon, who has struggled against left-handed batters. Lefties have an .844 OPS against Cannon, who's also been more prone to giving up home runs on the road than at home. We set Cruz's line at +314 to hit a home run.

Pittsburgh lefty Bailey Falter has been much better at home (5-1, 3.25 ERA) and at night (4-1, 2.75 ERA) this year, and obviously the White Sox aren't a very good lineup. They rank 18th in OPS vs. lefties and are 8-15 against them. Falter has gone at least five innings in a majority of his 2025 starts, although he didn't last time out. But he's on extra rest and managers want to give their guys a chance at a W if possible.

Before the All-Star break, both of these offenses have struggled mightily. Pittsburgh, currently, has the lowest batting average in the month of July, hitting .186 as a team while the White Sox are only hitting .209. Bailey Falter owns a 3.25 home ERA and Chicago has been hitting .229 against lefties on the season. The Pirates are only averaging two runs per game in their 11 games in July thus far. Jonathan Cannon has allowed three runs, or less, in eight of this last 10 starts as well.