FanDuel at +138. FanDuel Kris Bubic has been absolutely electric for the Royals this season. However, he’s struggled in each of his last two starts, allowing a combined 15 hits and 8 runs across 9.2 innings. Bubic missed virtually all of 2023, and only threw 70 innings last season, mostly as a reliever - already at 85 innings this year, fatigue could be coming into play. So while he’s regularly cleared this line this season, I’m seeing some value on the under against the Rays. Tampa has an .849 OPS against lefties over the last month, the third highest mark over that stretch. On a hot, muggy night, I think this is worth a bet down to +120.

Tampa Bay has been hitting .302 over their last 15 days and .282 as a team over their last 30 days. They face Kris Bubic who’s been pitching well at home, 2.43 ERA, but has allowed a combined eight runs over his last 9.2 innings. Taj Bradley has pitched well on the road of late but still owns a 4.02 road ERA and allowed a combined 13 runs over his last three starts. It’ll be hot in Kansas City which should play in the batter’s favor.

Jac Caglianone finally broke through last Thursday, hitting both his first and second home runs of his career. Despite hitting just above .200, Caglianone has an expected batting average of .306, which means he is hitting the ball hard but without much luck. His average swing speed is 77.3 MPH, which ranks in the top-10 of baseball. Rays' SP Taj Bradley has been struggling as of late and allowed 6 ER in 1.1 IP in his last start, which included two home runs allowed. Left-handed batters are slugging nearly 70 points higher against Bradley than right-handed bats. This is a longshot play, but Bradley's struggles combined with Caglianone's advanced metrics and hitter-friendly weather makes this worth a play.