The Rockies starter has an 8.64 ERA at home and allowed 3 HR in 8 IP. D-Backs love to hit in Coors. Rockies are 7-13 on the RL vs NL West teams and Merrill Kelly owns them, with a 0.98 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in last 5 starts against them. COL is 18-39 on RL after a loss.

At this price, may as well punch to 3.5 -- remember the Earl Weaver Orioles? They played for a three-run homer. That's kinda why I think getting over 3 is important in a scenario like this, but I'm fine with +2.5. Arizona's Merrill Kelly has slightly worse road splits and a 4.25 ERA career at Coors Field. The D'backs have a few injury concerns as well. I honestly could not care less what the final score is, but I believe the Rockies are capable of losing, say, 8-6 or something like that.