Yankees starter Ryan Yarbrough doesn't have a high home run allowed rate over his career, but his 1.4 HR/9 rate this season would be the second worst of his career. Yarbrough has significantly worse numbers against right-handed bats, who have hit 6 of the 8 home runs he's allowed this season. Neto's power numbers have dipped after a hot start, but he's still piling up hits. In 8 games where the opposing starter is a lefty, Neto has 3 home runs. The model set the line for Neto to homer at +405.