Playing under eight on Betrivers (-141), but would still play this number. Chicago returns from a nine game road trip, where Jesus Luzardo carved them up yesterday. Pete Crow-Armstrong is back and Andrew Heaney really struggled last time out vs. this lineup, plus his underlying metrics aren't encouraging. The weather is going to depress fly balls and Jameson Taillon, a pitcher who allows more fly balls, can likely get deeper into the game with that help. He gets into trouble when he allows the long ball, with two or more HR allowed in three games, which coincide with his two blowup starts. Pittsburgh is league worst on the road, and we need a 9th run to beat us, I really like that under eight.

The Cubs pounded Andrew Heaney on April 29, homering twice and plating four runs as the lefty failed to strike out anyone before leaving. Heaney walked three over 4.2 innings. For the season, Heaney has a much higher expected ERA (4.70) than actual ERA (3.23). Collectively, current Cubs own a .904 OPS against Heaney. Look for Jameson Taillon, who's given up five earned runs over his last four starts, to outpitch Heaney and hand the Cubs a lead through five.

It the same drill for the Pirates in games started by capable Andrew Heaney (perhaps soon to be dangled at the trade deadline to any contender looking for a rotation piece), who has been mostly effective with a 3.24 ERA but usually doesn't last much beyond the fifth inning. Moreover, he was dealing with a minor calf issue when he left the game last weekend vs. the Phils. The Bucs have won five of six, but their bullpen has proven unreliable all season, and ex-Pirate Jameson Taillon (1.75 ERA his last four starts) should pick up where he left off last time for the Cubs, allowing just one run across 7 IP in a win over the Tigers. Play Cubs on Run Line