The Yankees own a .904 OPS over the past seven days, and I like them to get to Royals starter Seth Lugo. He has an expected ERA of 5.22 compared to his actual ERA of 3.46. The Yankees are 5-0 against the Royals, outscoring them 28-11. I bet the Yankees because I believe they should be -150 in this spot.

The Royals nearly had a late comeback yesterday to cover the +1.5 but couldn't pull it off. I will go back to it tonight, though, as I am not high on Yanks pitcher Will Warren -- he has a 6.54 road ERA. I also wonder if the Yankees are peeking ahead to Friday night and their first visit this season to rival Boston -- especially after losing two of three to the Red Sox last weekend at Yankee Stadium. KC's Seth Lugo has a 3.10 home ERA. He's a rare guy Aaron Judge doesn't hit well career: 1-for-14 with five Ks. How about resting AJ tonight? Jazz Chisholm has left B2B games with groin tightness, so I can't imagine he's in the lineup.

Ben Rice is in a bit of a slump, but he's putting together good at-bats and just isn't being rewarded. The Yankees have also faced three left-handed starting pitchers over their last 4 games, so Rice finally gets to go against a righty starter today. Rice has 8 of his 12 home runs and an .848 OPS against right-handed pitchers this season. He's also hit 7 of his 12 home runs on the road, where he has a .265 batting average and a .909 OPS. Royals' starter Seth Lugo has given up 5 home runs over his last three starts and left-handers have hit 9 of the 12 home runs he's allowed. We set the line at +475 for Rice to hit a home run.