Zach Eflin has fanned 13 batters and walked one over his last two starts, and I bet him to get Baltimore off to a strong start against the visiting Tigers. Detroit counters with Casey Mize, who hasn't been sharp since returning May 24 from a strained hamstring. In those three starts, Mize allowed 18 hits and seven walks in 13 innings, with a 47 percent hard-hit rate. The Orioles' lineup is getting healthier. Back the hosts in the first five innings.

Few people mash RH pitching like Kerry Carpenter and Zach Eflin cannot keep the ball in the park at Camden Yards. He's not getting the ground ball rates he is used to. It's a nice hot night in Baltimore and that pull-side power plays really well with the flag court in right field. Carpenter has a HR in 5 at-bats vs Eflin. Carpenter has 4 HRs in 25 career at-bats at Camden Yards, with a 1.313 OPS.

Call us a bit perplexed by the prices in this series and Detroit not being favored for a second straight night in Baltimore. With MLB's best record (Tigers 44-24) against arguably its most disappointing team, the markets seem to be reading a bit too much into efforts by the respective starting pitchers. Which shouldn't be the end-all anyway, especially as the last two quality starts by the Birds' Zach Elfin have come vs. the inconsistent bats of the Chisox and Mariners. Would much rather back the Tigers and Casey Mize, who despite a couple of subpar recent efforts still has a 2.91 ERA this season, and, most importantly, Detroit a winner in seven of his ten starts. Play Tigers on Money Line

Casey Mize is a legit frontline starter. Zach Eflin has a soaring HR rate at home and the O's playing around with the ballpark dimensions, again, has done him no favors. The Orioles have a 35-45 record at home (including playoffs) since last June 10, bottom 5 in MLB. This season, at home, they are 27th n K-rate and 27th in W-rate. The Tigers are best team in AL for many reasons. I smell a sweep.