Andrew Abbott is over this line in six of nine starts and while the price is 20-40 cents cheap, I have a few reservations. The expected wOBA on his pitches all skew higher than the actual numbers, albeit some are negligible, and the whiff rate has bumped up on his fastball but decreased/stayed the same on the others. His changeup whiff rate is nearly identical to 2024 but he's using it as a putaway pitch more, so the strikeout rate has risen. The main change though is a massive increase in the curveball putaway usage, and that's what I believe he needs to lean into here to grab some strikeouts against this lineup. Not a great matchup but at this price I'll play the over.

FanDuel. Andrew Abbott has emerged as an All-Star caliber pitcher this season. Pitching to a 1.51 ERA, Abbott wrapped up a near perfect May, only allowing two earned runs over 32.2 innings, with 33 strikeouts. He’s notched at least five strikeouts in seven of his eight full starts this season, with the lone miss coming at Coors Field. His revamped changeup has lead to a strikeout resurgence - however he has proven to be a punch-out pitcher at every professional level. He’ll now face the Brewers, an average strikeout team against lefties - but they’ve also largely struggled to produce against southpaws. On a getaway day after a week-long road trip, we could also see a weaker lineup for the Brew Crew.

The Brewers haven't hit left-handed pitchers well this season for the most part and Reds' lefty Andrew Abbott is on some kind of roll. In six May starts, he had a 0.55 ERA with 33 strikeouts in 32 2/3 innings. The Brewers counter with a D.L. Hall and Quinn Priester combo and I like the chances the Reds' offense gets to one of them (or both).