Wilyer Abreu has already hit 13 home runs this season, closing in on his 2024 total of 15. Impressively, all 13 of his homers have come against right-handed pitchers. He's also been much more productive on the road, with a .988 OPS away from home compared to a .705 OPS at home. Today, he faces a right-handed pitcher on the road. Despite having only 20 hits in May, seven of those have been home runs. Braves pitcher Grant Holmes has been solid this season but has allowed 10 home runs, indicating some vulnerability. With hitter-friendly weather expected in Atlanta, we set the line at +360 for Abreu to go deep.

Marcell Ozuna is just 1 for 7 in his career against Lucas Giolito, but that one hit was a home run. He's been very effective against right-handed pitchers this season, posting a .286 batting average and a .918 OPS. Notably, 8 of his 9 home runs this season have come against righties. He's also been significantly better at home, hitting .318 compared to .242 on the road. While Giolito is coming off a strong outing, he allowed 3 home runs in the start before that. Giolito led all pitchers in 2023 with 41 home runs allowed before missing the 2024 season due to Tommy John surgery. Based on these factors, we set the line at +300 for Ozuna to hit a home run today.

DraftKings. Lucas Giolito has cleared this outs line in three of his five starts this season. Despite that, I’m fading him tonight in a rematch against the Braves, who shelled the Red Sox starter for eight hits and six runs over only four innings less than two weeks ago. The Braves bats have been hot, with an .819 OPS and 130 wRC+ against righties over the last two weeks. And they are patient; the Braves command 3.96 pitches per plate appearance - the fourth highest mark in baseball. GIolito’s slider has been flatter since coming back from his UCL reconstruction, and pitching on models are lower on him: he’s at an 89 per FanGraphs’ stuff+ metric - big drop from his 101 career average.