The Rockies own a .601 OPS against left-handed pitching as they prepare to face Cubs starter Matthew Boyd. He's 4-0 with a 3.00 ERA at home. Chicago hasn't scored much in this series but should break out against Tanner Gordon, who is making his first road start this season. Gordon was hit hard in five of his six road appearances last season.

We rarely find model value on favorites to cover the run line, but we like the Cubs at -1.5 even at the -149 price today. Although they needed extra innings to beat the Rockies yesterday, our simulations have them winning this game by an average of 2.5 runs today. Rockies starter Tanner Gordon picked up a win against the Yankees in his last outing, but he was 0-7 to start his career before that outing. Last season, the Rockies were 0-6 in Gordon's road starts, losing by nearly 4 runs per game. He hasn't made a road start yet this season, so those past road struggles are very relevant especially in the model.

Tanner Gordon has consistently allowed at least five hits in his starts at AAA and MLB levels this year. Now facing a tough Cubs lineup, throwing the fastball half of the time should not be a recipe for success tonight. That fastball isn't fooling anybody with a whiff rate below 10% and he's allowed a near .350 average to right handed hitters while not really holding lefties down either, allowing a .280 average. I'm also playing the over 1.5 walks at +120 (0.5u) on DK, with Gordon walking at least two batters in five of his last six starts and to make matters worse, Nic Lentz will be behind the plate and he profiles as one of the more hitter friendly umpires.