If I can lay the 1.5 runs and do it for better value than -200, I'll do it. Especially with a World Series contender, throwing one of the nastiest lefties in MLB, on the road, at Coors Field where the ball carries and I get a guaranteed at bat in the 9th inning (unless weather shortens game).

Antonio Senzatela has allowed at least seven hits in all but one of his nine starts so far this year and the Rockies have continued to rely upon him for starts simply because he is a veteran that can eat innings. He would not make many (if any) rotations for other teams, with a 7.43 expected ERA and a hard hit rate nearing 50%. Senzatela also doesn't strike many batters out, allowing a 90%+ zone contact rate, which was part of the reason he gave up ten hits in a start against the Phillies earlier this year. After nine runs and 17 hits by the Phillies last night, I'm taking the over here on a 7th hit especially at plus odds.