Not really understanding why the Brewers are home dogs against an Orioles team that clearly has quit already on a six-game skid and no "new manager bump" after the firing of Brandon Hyde over the weekend. It's not Hyde's fault that GM/ownership didn't go get pitching this offseason, but it is on Hyde that a lot of the team's good young hitters have regressed. Dean Kremer is 1-4 with a 6.96 ERA on the road.

He's crushed Dean Kremer in a limited sample, with 2 HR in 9 ABs. Kremer is prone to center-cut cutters and has allowed multiple HR in 3 of his last 7 outings. Kremer is only in the 40th percentile in ground ball rate League is slugging .519 off his fastball. He's allowed 7 HRs to lefties in just 27 IP. Kremer tends to oscillate wildly by the start and with the way this team is playing I could see this being on the non-competitive variety.

This pick is more about fading the Orioles than backing the Brewers. Baltimore is in disarray, having lost six straight games and recently firing manager Brandon Hyde. Their 15-30 start is a sharp decline from last season's 91-win campaign, and a lot of blame should also be placed on ownership which allowed Corbin Burnes to leave and didn't replace him with another ace. The Brewers are significantly better at home (13-9) than on the road (9-16), and while Quinn Priester has had a rough start overall, he's 1-1 in two home starts. The Orioles are just 1-5 in Dean Kremer's road starts and the Brewers are projected to win 62% of simulations, giving a -110 price plenty of value.

Gunnar Henderson has been battling strikeout issues lately, but when he connects, he's doing serious damage. He's hit 4 home runs in his last 9 games, though he's also had 5 multi-strikeout performances in that span. Henderson has been especially effective against right-handed pitching this season, slashing .310 with a .955 OPS. He'll face Brewers starter Quinn Priester, who has struggled against lefties, allowing a .909 OPS compared to just .650 against righties.

The "new manager bounce" already hasn't worked for the Orioles, who lost both Saturday and Sunday under interim Tony Masolino after GM Mike Elias hit the eject button on Brandon Hyde, as the Birds plumbed new depths when getting swept at home by the Nats. Not sure getting out of Baltimore and on the road, where the O's are 7-15, is going to prove much help, either, nor is turning to starter Dean Kremer (5.36 ERA), one of the rotation pieces at the center of the disappointment. At least the Brewers showed enough spark on Sunday to end the Twins' 13-game win streak, and recent efforts on the mound by Quinn Priester (1.80 ERA last two starts) have encouraged. Play Brewers on Money Line

Vegas still doesn't realize how pathetic the O's are fielding, hitting or pitching the ball. Now they don't even have an MLB manager and the staff is over its heads. They are 15-30 for good reason with the second-worst RD in baseball. The O's have lost 6 straight and 22 of 31; have a .628 OPS on road - only COL, PIT, CHW are worse. Dean Kremer is generally erratic. I could see Quinn Priester actually giving the O's lineup some issues. Deep cut to back this series - struggling ex-O's prospect Joey Ortiz will get a few big hits vs his old team.