I wrote up Freddie Freeman's case for a home run tonight in my pick on his total bases. I'm going to take a shot against Osvaldo Bido, a pitcher who has a fastball that hasn't performed well and is being hit hard. That is the pitch Freddie Freeman had 12/15 home runs against in 2024 when facing a righty and already this year, five of his nine total home runs have come against right handed fastballs. Rubber match, they need him to come up big tonight, I'll take a 0.25u shot...

Freddie Freeman has found home run success against fastballs from righties, with five of seven home runs vs. righties coming on the fastball (and 12/15 last year). Osvaldo Bido throws the fastball 43% of the time to lefties and they average 96+ mph exit velocity on the pitch, as the fastball run value is in just the 3rd percentile of all MLB pitchers. Bido didn't have home run issues before this year but already nine allowed in 40 innings, and five of 17 hits allowed to lefties across 20 innings have been bombs. Even if Freeman doesn't get the home run, I think he does well in the rubber match here, so I'll go total bases (0.5u) with 0.25u on the home run at +320.

Some hot bats in this series as the first two of this midweek set at Chavez Ravine have each featured 12 runs. In fact, across the last six games for the A's, there have been at least 11 runs scored, with overs hitting in each. We might get more of the same tonight as Osvaldo Bido's recent efforts on the mound have been getting progressively worse, and include a 6.10 ERA during his last two starts in May. Meanwhile, Dave Roberts makes this a bullpen game by giving reliever Matt Sauer his first MLB start, though Sauer capable of lasting a bit longer than the usual openers, having gone as long as five innings out of the bullpen earlier this season. Play A's-Dodgers Over.

Brent Rooker continues to show his power, already tallying 10 home runs this season after back-to-back 30-HR campaigns. He'll face Dodgers starter Matt Sauer, who has been effective this year, but may be in a tougher spot starting rather than coming out of the bullpen, where his stuff has played up. The weather in Los Angeles is also expected to be hitter-friendly, adding to Rooker's appeal. Rooker has faced Sauer twice in his career and is 1-2 with a HR. With our projected line at +300, the +360 offers solid value.