Brewers starter Freddy Peralta is in excellent form. Last time out he blanked the Cubs over six innings, and now he owns the third-lowest ERA in the NL. There are some warning signs for Guardians starter Ben Lively, including his career-high 45.6 percent hard-hit rate and his expected ERA of 4.55. The Brewers' offense doesn't excite me, but I like the pitching edge enough to play this.

FanDuel at under 16.5 outs @-118 - OK to under 15.5. Freddy Peralta has put together an excellent start to 2025, pitching to a 2.18 ERA (2.97 xERA). However the Brewers ace struggles with his pitch efficiency. Peralta is under 16.5 outs in five of his eight starts, and his 4.13 pitches per plate appearance is the 14th highest out of 134 qualifiers. Those struggles have been magnified on the road where Peralta is under this line in four of five starts (the one over was against the White Sox), with an 11.6% walk rate and 4.18 pitches per plate appearance. And the kicker here is that Peralta tweaked his groin in his last outing, causing this start to be pushed back a few days.