While Francisco Lindor is a switch-hitter, most of his power this season has come when batting from the left side against right-handed pitchers (RHPs). He has hit 6 of his 7 home runs this season against RHPs. In 30 games against right-handed starting pitchers, Lindor has a .880 OPS. In 6 games against left-handed starters, his OPS drops to .522. Merrill Kelly doesn’t give up many home runs, but he still has a 1.2 HR/9 rate and is susceptible to giving up 1 or 2 if he misses his spots. Lindor is just 2/10 in his career against Kelly, but having faced him 10 times before should help. We set the line at +370 for Lindor to hit a HR.

Only putting a half unit here, maybe I am being tepid for no reason, but Senga has ended with four strikeouts in three of his six starts. There does show value on this price at 4.5 K's so I'll back the over, but I do have some reservations about how poorly his pitches grade out on the Stuff+ scale. His swinging strike rate is solid at 12.6% and in line with previous years, so we know the swing and miss is there and likely more strikeouts will come, he just hasn't run it up much yet. Senga struck out six DBacks in just four innings last time out and matched his career high 12 punch outs in his only career start in the desert (2023).

DraftKings. Kodai Senga has only cleared this line in three of his six starts, but does have four strikeouts in each start. After a slow ramp up, he’s now working under no pitch limitations. He’ll get the Diamondbacks again (6 strikeouts in his last outing) - Arizona strikes out more against righties (22.3% over the last two weeks is the tenth highest mark in baseball). And with Arizona likely starting 6-7 left handed hitters, Senga should be able to unleash his forkball at will. Thirteen of the last 15 non-opener righties have cleared this line against the D-Backs. I’d bet this up to -150.