Getting a line under -200 in a first-place vs. last-place matchup offers value, even though they are in different divisions. Both teams have had two days off, so they should be fresh before a double-header tomorrow. Colorado is just 6-28 this season, while Detroit is off to a 22-13 start. This game features two top young pitching prospects (Jackson Jobe vs. Chase Dollander). I favor Jobe, as the Tigers are 5-0 when he starts, compared to the Rockies being 2-3 when Dollander starts. Dollander is coming off his best start, but he needs to show more consistency. We would set the line at -215, with the Tigers winning in over 68% of simulations.

Despite the strikeout numbers and swinging strike rate being down for this kid, the Stuff+ metrics love his pitch arsenal and facing one of the best matchups for strikeouts here, I'll take a 0.5u shot on the +115 price for a 5th strikeout. Jobe has struck out at least four batters in three of his last four starts and while Coors Field can present challenges, he doesn't need to do a ton right in this one to hit a 5th strikeout again. He's thrown at least 77 pitches in each start, and has got closer to 90 at times, which is plenty of work to get a 5th punch out.

Have a minor worry about excellent Tigers rookie pitcher Jackson Jobe in Coors Field for the first time, but Detroit's entire bullpen is available having been off since Sunday. I'd like to see the 2025 Rockies vs. the 2024 White Sox in one of those electric football games with the metal men moving. It would be a scoreless tie between historically bad clubs. Colorado's rookie pitcher, Chase Dollander, has a 6.75 ERA in three home starts.