Kris Bubic has gone over 4.5 strikeouts in five of six starts this season. He faced the Orioles back on April 6 and whiffed eight over 6.2 innings. Baltimore struggles vs. lefties, batting just .172 with 94 K's in 309 at-bats. Bubic is averaging just over a strikeout per inning. If that trend continues today, we should be in good shape to cash the bet.

Bubic has hi this in 5 of his 6 starts, including a season-best 8 vs the O's earlier this season. Have the O's made an adjustments to LHP since then? Negativo - worst in MLB with a .492 OPS. Yeah, OPS. Those frustrations have carried over into terrible ABs. O's 27% K rate vs lefties is 3rd-worst in MLB. The last lefty they faces, Carlos Rodon, had a perfecto into the 6th and K'd 7 in 6 IP. I suspect O's generate a lineup that leans way more into Bubic's reverse splits than the one he dominated in KC, but they are also lacking some key bats that pound LHP due to injury. Number too low for me to ignore.

The O's are 2-8 vs Southpaws and in most outings literally fail to get a man to second base. Kris Bubic looked like Warren Spahn in his first outing vs them this season and he is in great form now. Carlos Rodon flirted with a perfecto into the 6th inning vs the O's earlier this week. Total ineptitude vs lefties - .172/.256/.236 - .492, by far worst in MLB. Royals lineup only goes 3.5 deep and with Sal Perez and The Pasquatch struggling it's Bobby Witt vs the world. Tomo Sugano has been great his last few times out and was solid vs the Royals in KC. A pox on both of these lineups.

This is an O's lineup that Kris Bubic already found success against this year, with eight strikeouts in 6.2 innings. He's thrown 91+ pitches in each start and pitched into the 6th inning in all but one. The swinging strike rate looks solid at 14% and he's kept the zone contact rate down as well. Baltimore has a league worst OPS against lefties (.492) and one of the highest strikeout rates (27%). Only three southpaws have been held below this line, two ending with four strikeouts (low-K guys Mitchell Parker and Sean Newcomb) and one being an opener. Everyone else has torn them up, and we only need a 5th here, great price!

DraftKings. Kris Bubic only managed four strikeouts in his last start against Houston, but otherwise, he’s managed at least five strikeouts in each of his other six starts. With four pitches all capable of drawing swings and misses, Bubic’s whiff rate sits in the 73rd percentile, and his called+swinging strike rate is in the 89th percentile amongst pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched. The Orioles continue to be a strikeout friendly target against left handed pitching, with a 27% strikeout rate and a league worst .492 OPS.