There is uncertainty around Gunnar Hoglund tonight and how deep he will pitch in his debut, but this is a great price for a 4th strikeout. It isn't like he has insane strikeout numbers in AAA but he's had 5,5,7,5,and 5 strikeouts over his last five starts. Of course these are major league hitters, not AAA level, but quite a few of the Marlins would not even be starters on other teams, so I really don't see this as a huge step up in class. He's around a strikeout per inning in the minors and could be worse than that here, yet still win for us. Price is key, and we have to play this at +125. Should be +100 at best.

This might end up laughably wrong, but I always look at Under 5.5 in the first five in games where weather won't factor, and it won't in Miami. The Marlins' Enrico Pallazzo ... err Valente Bellozo has allowed two runs over his eight innings pitched in 2025 and will serve as a glorified opener. It's the MLB debut of the Athletics' Gunnar Hoglund. I don't generally play Unders when rookies are pitching, but I don't think much of the Miami lineup and Hoglund has been impressive in six starts for Triple-A Las Vegas this season, with a 2.43 ERA and 30 strikeouts in 29 2/3 innings. Obviously the Marlins haven't seen him, which usually is to the pitchers' benefit the first time through a lineup.