Keep an eye on the Mariners, just off of another winning series and now on an 8-2 run into Fenway Park. Tuesday starter Bryce Miller is still working until only the fifth inning or so. However, his last two starts have been more than encouraging for Dan Wilson, allowing just one run and five hits, while striking out 13 combined against the Rangers and Reds. Meanwhile, Brayan Bello makes his first start of the season for the Red Sox after coming off of the DL, and now the schedule starts to get a bit more serious after seven games vs. the lowly Chisox in the preceding ten days (Boston just 4-3 in those). Play Mariners on Money Line.

Cal Raleigh is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now, tied for the league lead with 9 homers—7 of which have come in his last 9 games. While most of his power has come against righties, his solid .825 OPS against lefties this year makes him less vulnerable to late-inning matchups. Our model gives Raleigh the best HR probability today (+268 implied), making this +330 line appealing. He faces Brayan Bello, who is just coming off the IL and may not be fully sharp. Raleigh is in a strong spot to go deep again.

Brayan Bello makes his first start of the season coming off the IL and I'm going to look to take advantage of that with a Mariners team that has hot bats and has been particularly hot against righties. The Mariners will trot out Bryce Miller who has recovered nicely from a tough start to the season. Miller may have some issues with the lefties in the Red Sox lineup in particular, but I think he'll be more impressive than Bello (who wasn't exactly great in his rehab apperances). With the situation in mind, I think the wrong team is favored.

Generally speaking, I won't play a prop over -200 (or anything MLB) so we sneak this in, and I'm frankly not sure why Seattle's Julio Rodriguez is even set at 1.5 hits considering the former AL Rookie of the Year is batting .188 on the season and .184 on the road. It's not a particularly great hitters' night weather-wise at Fenway Park, either. Seems like a gift even if it does lose. J-Rod has just three two-hit games this year.