It's going to be 50° at Wrigley Field with winds blowing out to the left field at 23 mph and precipitation at 6%. This is going to be a high-scoring game, and the total reflects it at 11. Arizona has gone 8-8 on the over despite scoring 9.79 runs per game, but the Cubs are over 13-7, scoring 10.1 runs a game. Both teams have won 12 games, and Corbin Burnes hasn't been himself in the first three starts, allowing 11 runs with all three getting over. Just the over.

Pete Crow-Armstrong been swinging a really good bat in the last week and the wind is screaming out in Wrigley Field today. Just a sprinkle, though, as he's facing Corbin Burnes to start.

This game has all the ingredients for a high-scoring affair, with a total set at 11 runs and strong wind blowing out in Chicago. Josh Naylor has been locked in at the plate, homering in three straight games and driving in a run in four straight. Hitting cleanup in a red-hot Diamondbacks offense, Naylor is in prime position for RBI chances. He boasts a 1.208 OPS against right-handed pitching this season. While Colin Rea has been solid this season, he is a RHP with a career ERA of 4.50. At +135, there’s strong value backing Naylor to keep his RBI streak alive.

Bet365 at -130. Corbin Burnes has failed to clear this line in two of his three starts. He’s shown some diminished velocity and spin on his cut-fastball, and opponents are having success against it (.438 wOBA). The results have lead to a diminished whiff rate to start this season. He gets a tough matchup today - not only are the Cubs striking out at the league’s 11th lowest rate versus righties (20.7%), but the wind is ripping out at Wrigley today. I’d bet this up to -145.