FanDuel @ -102. FanDuel. I’ve had success on under pitcher outs props when targeting wild pitchers against patient teams. The matchup of Robbie Ray against the Phillies is just that. Ray only hits the zone 38.6% of the time - 116th out of 140 starting pitchers this season (min. 10 IP, per FanGraphs). And his last fully healthy season (2022), he was at 40%. Issue this year is that Ray’s chase rate is below average (42nd percentile). The Phillies hit lefties well (102 wRC+ is 11th best), and have the fifth lowest chase rate as a team. Pitching on four-days rest for the first time this season, I see the Giants exercising caution with their oft-injured ace.

Mike Yastrzemski didn’t start Tuesday but he owns Aaron Nola and is off to a great start with a .298 AVG and .995 OPS. In his career he is 3/9 with a HR and 5 RBI vs Nola, who was not quite himself last season and has been brutal this season. Nola has a 5.51 ERA and the league is slugging .688 off his 4 seam and .647 off his knuckle curve, the two pitches he throws the most. His velo is down and he is getting barreled up a lot. Yaz is slugging .571 off the 4-seamer this season and .778 vs breaking balls. He's making the most of his walk year so far and guys are getting on base around him.