Maybe those torpedo bats aren't the revolution they appeared to be with the Yankees on the verge of being swept. And that's really all this play is as home teams tend to get a bit more fired up to avoid such; plus we don't even need a win. I certainly don't trust Yanks starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco that much -- although the veteran was very good this spring. (That the Yanks have had to use Will Warren and Carrasco as starters in their series is a whole different problem.) Snakes closer AJ Puk is likely unavailable after finishing both wins. About the only benefit of Wednesday's loss for NYY was resetting the pen. Our model has New York winning.

Carlos Cararsco doesn't become an MLB-caliber starting pitcher just by putting on the pinstripes. He earned that 3-10 record and 5.64 ERA last year, with just 89 strikeouts in 103 2/3 IP for the Guardians. This ballpark might not play well for him and I like the Arizona lineup and I like Merrill Kelly on the bump. Yankees pen might still be spotty.