Perez should thrive against a bad lineup. This is 16.5 everywhere else so I also see the value. Take the over.

The Tigers send Casey Mize to the bump…he’s not Tarik S….plus the bullpen is fried. Take SD at home

The Padres rescued us from total disaster on Wednesday with a huge comeback win to move 19 games above .500 for the first time since 2010. Tonight's Tigers starter Casey Mize is 2-3 with a 5.05 ERA on the road. Arguably Detroit's most important reliever, Will Vest, pitched two innings last night so he's probably not available in a getaway game. San Diego is on an 11-3 run at home and has been the best team in the majors overall since the All-Star break.

Since losing the first game after the All-Star break, the Padres have been the best team in baseball. The Tigers were playing well heading into this series, but almost too well. Regression was coming. Tigers starter Casey Mize has a 5.05 ERA on the road this year and got knocked around a bit by a lackluster Red Sox offense last time. The Padres are 6-0 in Martin Perez starts since acquiring him and we'll ride that wave.