Houston has lost four of Justin Verlander’s last five starts. He owns a 3.77 road ERA and has allowed four runs in three of those last five starts as well. Alex Bregman is not in the Astros lineup today, but they’ve been hitting .277 with a .778 OPS over their last seven days. Julian Aguiar makes his fourth start of the season and owns a 13.50 home ERA, but Cincinnati won his first three starts. The Reds have not been playing their best, losing four of their last five at home in the first game of the series, but may get to Verlander who’s not been in good form.

The Stros are the best and hottest team in the AL, and I like Justin Verlander to show up today as he tries to make his case for a rotation that is excellent despite injuries. Eight of their last 10 wins are by 2+ runs and they bring a 5-game win streak into this game. Reds fading fast and they are starting a kid pitcher who has really struggled.